Decide with the downside already modeled.
Scenario economics and capital discipline for asset and operating decisions. Before money moves, PAYNE models what the decision actually costs, what can go wrong, and the exact number at which the answer becomes no.
The full cost of yes.
Most bad capital decisions were lost before commitment — an unpriced scenario, a hidden cost line, an unstated walk-away. Each item below closes one of those gaps.
Scenario economics
Base, downside and upside cases with the assumptions written down. Each scenario carries its own cash outcome, not an average that hides the range.
All-in cost stacks
Purchase price is the smallest lie in a deal. Fees, transport, rework, carry, taxes, disposal and time are stacked into one honest number.
Downside modeling
What happens if the resale falls through, the timeline doubles, or the buyer disappears. The floor case is modeled first — upside is only interesting after survival is priced.
Acquisition ceilings & walk-away numbers
A maximum defensible price computed before negotiation starts, and a walk-away that does not move in the room. The number decides; the moment does not.
Capital prioritization
Competing uses for the same dollars ranked on the same yardstick — return, risk, time to cash and reversibility — so the best use wins, not the loudest.
Commercial feasibility
The blunt question asked early: can this actually make money? Demand, channel, margin and constraint are tested before the plan gets expensive.
A decision is a number plus a trigger — not a feeling.
Every engagement ends in a stated threshold and a stated condition: buy below this, sell above that, stop if this happens. Written before emotion arrives, so the decision holds when it does.
View engagement typesA model you can argue with.
The deliverable is a written decision instrument — inspectable, challengeable and reusable when the next decision looks like this one.
- A written decision model with assumptions stated. Every input named, sourced and adjustable — nothing buried in a spreadsheet cell.
- Sensitivity on the variables that matter. Which two or three inputs actually move the outcome, and how far each can slip before the answer flips.
- A ceiling and a walk-away. The maximum defensible commitment and the point past which the correct move is out — both fixed before negotiation begins.
- A record you can revisit when reality answers. The decision, the reasoning and the numbers preserved, so the next model learns from what actually happened.
Bring the decision you're circling.
Send what you're weighing, the rough numbers you have, and what would make it a clear no. A person reads and answers every message.